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Following Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine, there were widespread concerns that China would take similar military action against Taiwan, although China claimed that Taiwan was not Ukraine.
China is serious about bringing the island of Taiwan back to mainland China.
Chinese fighter jets regularly enter Taiwan’s airspace, conducting patrols and, demonstrating the Chinese government’s commitment, that Taiwan is part of mainland China. “We cannot guarantee that we will not use military force,” said President Xi Jinping.
“China considers Taiwan a part of its territory that no one can contact without Peijing,” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, responding to a visit by a Czech delegation to Taipei, said: “This is an interference. China will respond in the best possible way. There is only one China in the world and Taiwan is one of them.”
Taiwan itself is not aware of the possibility of a Chinese invasion of its territory. ”I think China is expanding abroad.”
James Fanell, a US intelligence expert who spoke to DW, warned that the Taipei-Beijing conflict could worsen.
Will the Ukraine war lead to China attacking Taiwan?
Despite fears that China could regain control of Taiwan, suspicions have mounted after Russia, a close ally of China, invaded neighboring Ukraine and its clerics. Politics is watching, what China can learn from the Ukraine war.
“The crisis in Ukraine will cause China to reconsider and take action before it takes action,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a Taiwanese professor at the Australian National University, according to Bloomberg. According to Ti Sung, the Russian invasion did not go as planned and Russia may regret it.
According to Bloomberg, Winston Lord, a former US ambassador to China, said: “Attacking from a distance of 100miles, with the possibility of US intervention, is a very serious matter. The capture of Taiwan means a dog chasing a car.”
A spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, meanwhile, distanced herself from the comparison between Taiwan and Ukraine, saying “Taiwan is not Ukraine” but, threatening that Taiwan’s independence would end badly.
Will the West support Taiwan if China attacks?
In the wake of NATO’s refusal to provide military assistance to Ukraine, it is unlikely that the West will defend Taiwan against China, other than imposing sanctions or supplying weapons as they have always provided, although President Biden has promised that its troops will directly defend Taiwan if China invades.
“We see that the United States is taking a stronger stance on Taiwan than ever before. The United States has continued to sell arms to Taiwan,” Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, said.
Douglas Herbert, a foreign policy analyst, believes that US forces will never fight on Taiwan, calling Biden’s promise null and void.
“This contradicts US foreign policy. Since 1979, when the United States revoked Taiwan, the United States has signed an agreement to provide Taiwan with weapons to defend itself, but it has never signed an agreement to defend itself. The United States recognizes the so-called “One China” policy, Herbert said.
In addition to Herbert’s political commentary, the United States has always shown its support for Taiwan. US to Taiwan, according to Council Foreign Relations.