By Anadolu Agency
The conflict, which began on June 13 when Israel launched large-scale attacks targeting nuclear facilities in various cities in Iran, including the army’s high command, and to which the Tehran administration retaliated with missiles and drones, has entered its third day.
While the International Energy Agency stated yesterday that supply in the oil markets is at good levels, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also stated that there is no situation that requires taking extraordinary measures in the current supply and market conditions and that the market is stable.
“Escalating the conflict is not in Iran’s interest”
Experts say the conflict will not reach a level that will trigger a possible disruption in oil and gas transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and that its impact on the global natural gas market will be limited.
Tamas Pletser, Oil and Gas Analyst at Erste Investment, told Anadolu Agency that Iran is more important as an oil producer, adding, “It is currently producing a little more than 3 million barrels of crude oil per day. Its impact on the global crude oil market depends on how long this conflict will last, what sanctions the US can impose on Iranian crude oil, and whether Iran can close or limit passages through the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation.”
Pletser, who indicated that Iran would not play the Strait of Hormuz card, said, “I believe the conflict will be short-lived because Iran has no interest in escalating tensions. This means they will not touch the Strait of Hormuz. Additional sanctions seem possible as long as Iran does not agree to give up its nuclear program. I think the price of oil could remain high for 2-3 weeks, then drop below $70 per barrel.”
Pletser, noting that the Strait of Hormuz is an important route for global liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation, said, “Qatari gas also passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran blocks this passage, this could push up global gas prices. However, I see the likelihood of such a scenario as low.”
RIE Energy Geopolitics and Markets Research Fellow Francesco Sassi said the problems in Iran were unlikely to have major impacts on global natural gas markets.
“Global effects could arise more from problems in the Strait of Hormuz or if the conflict spreads to other regional actors and directly or indirectly affects supplies from Qatar, Iraq or, for that matter, Israel,” Sassi said.
The Strait of Hormuz plays a significant role in global energy flows
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most sensitive energy routes, plays a significant role in the global energy flow by connecting the oil and LNG production centers in the Persian Gulf to international markets via the Oman Sea.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage through which about one-third of global oil trade takes place, with 17 to 20 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude and condensate being transported to world markets via this narrow waterway.
Approximately 70 percent of this flow is directed to Asian countries, and countries such as China, Japan, India and South Korea, as well as Singapore, Thailand, Pakistan and the Philippines, are among the regions most dependent on supply from this line.
Similarly, almost all of the LNG from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates is shipped through Hormuz, making the strait a hub through which approximately 20 percent of the global LNG trade passes, with Europe emerging as a major customer of this shipment.
It is anticipated that any possible disruption in transit through the Strait of Hormuz will support global oil and LNG prices upwards.
The Strait of Hormuz was last closed in 1984
According to data from energy data analysis firm Kpler, 34 percent of oil traded by sea has passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of 2024. The strait, which was last effectively closed in 1984 during the Iran-Iraq War and known as the “Tanker War,” is a critical bottleneck for global gas and oil shipments.
However, according to data from Marine Traffic, a maritime traffic
monitoring platform, there has been no significant change in commercial ship movements in the region so far. According to the data, there are currently 1,948 commercial ships around the Strait of Hormuz. In the last 24 hours, 97 ships entered the region and 85 ships exited. During the same period, 17 tankers entered and 17 tankers exited, and a total of 116 tankers are navigating in the region.