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Between Paris, Rome, and the Ethiopian Prime Minister is seeking political and economic support, fearing a new war between his country and Eritrea. At home, economic hardship and repression are fuelling opposition to the government.
On May 22, 2025 French President Emmanuel Macron received Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Paris. This was an unexpected visit, following Macron’s visit to Addis Ababa on December 21, 2024, which was said to be aimed at strengthening bilateral relations based on strategic friendship.
The talks between Abiy and Macron were “constructive,” the Ethiopian Prime Minister wrote on social media. Macron, for his part, said in his post X that France sees a “prosperous and peaceful” future for Ethiopia.
France, however, was not the only European stop during his May trip. A few days later, the Prime Minister flew to Rome to meet with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Pope Leo XIV. However, he canceled a planned stop in the United Kingdom. In London, in fact, the Ethiopian community took to the streets, protesting against a possible visit, while condemning the massacres in the Amhara region and the arrests of lawmakers and opposition figures in Addis Ababa.
Officially, the purpose of the European trip was to attract new investment to Ethiopia. In reality, Abiy is aiming to gain political support from the European Union. France may have to appease its German ally, while Prime Minister Meloni could act as a mediator in negotiations with conservative European governments.
The Italian media, which according to recent data only gives 14% of its coverage to East Africa, has ignored the arrival of the Ethiopian Prime Minister, with the exception of news agencies. In contrast, Augustine Passilly, a French journalist from Addis Ababa, published an analytical article about the trip in Le Point, also citing sources that are useful for understanding his deeper intentions beyond the obvious.
The most important part of this trip,” said Mahdì Labzaè, a researcher at the CNRS (National Center for Scientific Research) and an expert on Africa, “was to test the response of the allied countries in the event of a new war against Eritrea. In addition, the government, which is on the verge of collapse, is desperately looking for financial support.”
The economic crisis is severe. The $265 million that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to provide Ethiopia by the end of June is not enough to recover from a country where, according to a recent internal report, 26% of its 130 million people live in extreme poverty.
With the economy in shambles and no internal agreement in place, Abiy seems eager to turn his attention to an external target: Eritrea.
After Italian colonization, and after years of federalism and integration with Ethiopia, Eritrea gained its independence in 1991. From 1998 to 2000, however, war broke out again between the two countries, and the subsequent Algiers Accords did not bring real peace, but a “non-war” situation. Only with the arrival of Prime Minister Abiy in 2018 did talks resume, which had once again run into trouble after the Pretoria Agreement between the Ethiopian government and Tigray.
Now Prime Minister Abiy is asking Eritrea to build a commercial port and naval base in Assab. He has described the loss of the port after Eritrea’s independence as a “historical mistake.”
In fact, Eritrea has never denied access to the ports of Massawa and Assab for commercial activities. In terms of historical ownership, the ports have never been in Ethiopia except during the years of federalism, annexation, and military colonization. An independent Eritrea reclaimed its territory, marking the borders of the former colonies where the ports were located.
The idea that a large country could have access to the sea may find favor in Europe, although no European leader has openly supported this position. However, Abiy’s itinerary suggests that he is seeking support in the event of a war with Eritrea.
What seems to be reassuring Prime Minister Abiy is the friendly rhetoric from France. Macron has not held back the smiles and handshakes, despite allegations of serious human rights abuses in the Amhara and Oromo regions.
Another card Abiy is playing is his commitment to uphold the Pretoria Agreement (2022), signed after two years of war between the Ethiopian government (which also supported Eritrea) and the TPLF. However, today the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is divided, and the group led by Debretsion Gebremichael has approached Eritrea, fearing the possibility of a new war by Abiy.
In addition to the diplomatic route, Abiy is also seeking military support from Turkey, which has already produced drones used in bombing raids in the Amhara region, and the United Arab Emirates, which may support a war against Eritrea.
According to inside sources, Ethiopian troops have been massing on the Eritrean border in recent months.
Europe was also mentioned by Desta Tilahum, Secretary General of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party, who said: “We need diplomatic relations with the European Union, but it should benefit the people, not just one leader. European politicians should know that in Ethiopia people die every day from hunger, internal conflicts, and inflation. Children do not go to school, and young people are forced to fight. I have never seen such chaos. If Ethiopia collapses, the world will suffer the consequences.”
The opposition, which is often silenced or repressed, fears that Abiy’s trip to Europe is aimed at raising new funds not to alleviate the suffering but to complete luxury projects and strengthen the government’s power. In Rome, the Prime Minister also met with Pietro Salini, the head of Webuild, a construction company that is completing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), but has previously complained of delays in payments.
Meanwhile, in mid-May, a massive strike by health workers took place in Ethiopia to protest poor working conditions and low wages. The strike was followed by a crackdown, with hundreds of people arrested, according to Amnesty International.
Abiy’s trip concluded in the Vatican, where he met with Pope Leo XIV. On social media, the Prime Minister thanked them for the “warm welcome” and the joint commitment to world peace. A seemingly two-pronged message, on the eve of a possible new conflict with Eritrea—a prospect that many fear.