File Photo/Somali Times
The President of the Republic of Somalia Hassan Sheikh has so far failed to hold election one-person, one-vote election, despite major obstacles that appear to be slowing him down.
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The Federal Government is facing strong opposition from opposition politicians in the National Salvation Forum, supported by Puntland and Jubaland. The fateful dispute between them arose from amendments to four (4) of the 15 chapters of the Transitional Federal Constitution, which was enacted on March 30, 2024.
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A day after the two Houses of the Federal Parliament approved the amendments to the draft Constitution, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed them, Puntland announced that it had suspended its cooperation with the Federal Government, until the amendments to the four chapters of the Transitional Federal Constitution of the Federal Republic of Somalia that were agreed upon are withdrawn.
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Opposition politicians have also been resisting the changes for some time, warning the Federal Government about the way it will manage the upcoming elections.
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On August 13, meetings between opposition politicians and the corrupt President Hassan Sheikh of the Federal Government ended inconclusively after they failed to reach an agreement to withdraw the amended provisions of the National Constitution, in order to first agree on whether to amend it or not.
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The amended provisions pave the way for direct elections in 2026, which the opposition says cannot be held without an agreement.
The Federal Government leaders insist that after decades, a representative electoral system must be implemented in the country to take the country’s governance system in a new direction.
The opposition refuses to show the public that they are opposed to the people voting, but that they are opposed to the way the Federal Government is managing the election.
The President, who is reducing the pressure on the politicians of the National Salvation Forum, has managed to break it into two factions, after reaching an agreement in late August with four members who in principle gave up their positions.
Presidents Hassan Sheikh and Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, Mohamed Mursal Sheikh Abdirahman, Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke, and Ex-Minister Dahir Mohamud Geelle have agreed to directly elect local councils and members of parliament at both the regional and federal levels, with members of the federal parliament electing the President.
This is the biggest concession the President has made in a single step towards an agreement on the election, but it is still not enough to reach a solution. As mentioned, the other faction of the National Salvation Forum politicians is the largest faction, and they refuse to allow the country to go to elections with or without their agreement, and at a time when they previously supported Puntland, they have now joined Jubaland.
The leader of the Somali opposition and former Somalia President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who leads the largest faction of the opposition members, recently said that President Hassan Sheikh cannot escape reality, and that the current fateful conflict must be ended together.
The national leaders are aware of the political influence of the opposing parties, although they are working to remove the Jubaland administration led by Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe, replacing it with a new administration owned by the people of Jubaland, which is to be established in the city of Garbaharey, and recognized by Villa Somalia.
While these political challenges may be a boon for the Federal Government, they also face another security challenge, given that Al-Shabab militants are attempting to seize new territory from the military.
Al-Shabab has captured large areas of Hirshabelle State in the early and mid-year period, having recaptured districts and areas previously liberated from them.
Al-Shabab has captured at least five districts and approximately thirty areas in the eastern regions of Middle Shabelle and Hiraan.
The security and political circumstances in the country, the remaining five months of President Hassan Sheikh’s term, and the international community’s unwillingness to fund non-binding elections, could prove to be an insurmountable challenge for the Federal Government. If a solution is not reached, it could lead to a return to the free and fair elections that have been held for the past two decades.