File Photo Somali Times/Former Somalia president Hassan Sheikh and one of his wives
By MP Dr Abdillahi Hashi Abib
·
MEMORANDUM
To: The United Nations Security Council • African Union Peace and Security Council • United States • United Kingdom • European Union • IGAD • International Partners • Somalia Political Stakeholders.
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Executive Summary
Somalia has reached a constitutional and security crossroads.
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A prolonged political impasse, combined with the continuing threat posed by Al-Shabaab and the ongoing transition of African Union security responsibilities, risks creating the very security vacuum that the African Union Peace and Security Council warned against in African Union Peace and Security Council Communiqué.
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Without a broadly accepted constitutional roadmap toward elections, Somalia faces the risk of institutional paralysis, reduced public confidence, weakened counterterrorism coordination, and further instability.
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The objective of this memorandum is not to advocate for any individual or political faction. It is to propose a Somali-led constitutional caretaker arrangement that preserves continuity of government, restores democratic legitimacy, and protects regional and international security.
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Why Immediate Action Is Necessary
Somalia remains on the front line of the global fight against Al-Shabaab. Political uncertainty can affect the cohesion of national institutions and the effectiveness of security operations at a time when continued coordination is essential.
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The African Union has already recognized the importance of preventing a security vacuum during the transition from AUSSOM. International partners have invested substantial financial, humanitarian, and security resources in Somalia. Preserving those gains requires a peaceful constitutional path to renewed democratic legitimacy.
A Constitutional Caretaker Option
To preserve constitutional order and national stability, Somali political stakeholders should urgently negotiate a Somali-led constitutional caretaker arrangement through lawful constitutional and parliamentary procedures. Under Articles 97–100 of the Provisional Constitution, executive authority is vested in the Council of Ministers, headed by the Prime Minister.
The appointment of a neutral interim Prime Minister and caretaker Council of Ministers whose mandate would be strictly limited to.
Maintaining security and continuity of government.
Protecting the neutrality of state institutions.
Conducting credible elections for the Federal Parliament.
Facilitating the election of parliamentary leadership.
Supporting the election of a new President under the Constitution.
Transferring authority immediately after the formation of the new constitutional government.
The caretaker government should be prohibited from extending its own mandate, entering major long-term agreements, or using state institutions to influence electoral outcomes.
A Somali Precedent
Somalia has previously demonstrated that political consensus can preserve constitutional continuity during an electoral impasse.
During the 2021–2022 transition, Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble led the Federal Government’s operational role in implementing the electoral process through a Somali political agreement, while international partners supported that process. The transition concluded peacefully with the election of a new Parliament, parliamentary leadership, and President.
That experience illustrates that a constitutionally supported caretaker executive can help facilitate a peaceful transfer of power. It should be understood as a political precedent rather than proof of a constitutional rule.
Role of International Partners
International partners should support – but not dictate – a Somali-owned constitutional process by.
Encouraging inclusive political dialogue.
Supporting an agreed election timetable.
Providing technical and election-security assistance.
Monitoring implementation of the agreed process.
Supporting measures that discourage violence or material obstruction of a peaceful constitutional transition, consistent with applicable law.
Conclusion
The question facing Somalia is not simply who governs. It is whether the country can renew democratic legitimacy through constitutional institutions while maintaining security and protecting the gains achieved against Al-Shabaab.
A Somali-led caretaker arrangement with a narrowly defined electoral mandate offers one possible path toward those objectives. Supporting such a process would help reduce the risk of instability, preserve continuity of government, and provide the conditions for credible parliamentary and presidential elections consistent with Somalia’s constitutional framework.